From Sunflower to Sovereignty: A Comparative Analysis of Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI) Strategies in Edible Oils — Lessons from Russia for Zimbabwe

Introduction. The article presents the results of a critical analysis of the Russian strategic model of import substitution in the agro-processing industry on the example of the vegetable oil production industry, based on which an assessment of prospects for Zimbabwe is made.
Materials and Methods. The study employs comparative policy analysis to identify specific mechanisms targeted tariffs, production subsidies, and vertical integration incentives that facilitated Russia's transformation from a net importer to a global exporter. A formal feasibility analysis determines the extent to which this policy framework can be applied to Zimbabwe. By comparing differences in scale, institutional capacity, and market structure, the study identifies the most important aspects of the Russian model for the Zimbabwean context.
Results. Based on an analysis of South-South policy transfer, a practical method is proposed for enhancing food sovereignty in developing countries through strategic industrial policy. The analysis shows that successful transfer depends less on replicating instruments and more on adapting strategic logic to local institutional constraints — a process termed «constrained adaptation.» The author concludes that edible oils represent a strategic entry point for rebuilding industrial policy credibility and achieving incremental food sovereignty in Zimbabwe.
Discussion. Comparison of this study's results with the work of other authors confirms key conclusions. The effectiveness of the Russian import substitution model is conditioned by pre-existing bureaucratic capacity, which aligns with this study's finding on institutional thickness as a binding constraint. The role of strategic planning and sequential policy implementation in achieving food security correlates with the study's identified principles of sectoral selectivity and temporal sequencing. Research on the political economy of agro-holding development is complemented by this study, which shows that for countries with lower institutional capacity, direct transfer of the large agro-holding model is not feasible, and an adapted phased strategy is more realistic. This study confirms that fiscal space is a determining factor for the availability of industrial policy instruments and successful import substitution.
Conclusion. This article will be useful for analysts in industrial policy, specialists in the ministries of agriculture and industry of developing countries, as well as researchers studying import substitution, policy transfer, and agro-industrial value chain development in the context of South-South cooperation.