Urbanization Trends in Central Asian Countries: the Development of Agglomerations Over the Years of Independence (2000–2023)

According to the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), 2023, today one fifth of the world's population lives in 600 largest cities, accounting for about 60% of global GDP. Rapid urban growth and an increasing urban population create both opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, cities, especially large ones, are becoming centers of economic growth and development, as well as centers of opportunities for people and businesses. On the other hand, urban infrastructure does not always keep pace with the growth of the urban population and its rapidly growing needs, which leads to a deterioration of living conditions in cities and problems such as environmental degradation, lack and poor quality of public services, etc. This can be clearly seen in the example of large megacities in the Asian region. Urbanization is a major challenge for Central Asia, which is a rapidly growing region economically and demographically. At the same time, urban population growth in the region may be higher than expected as a result of structural reforms and other administrative, social and economic factors. The research is based on the study of demographic indicators of Central Asian countries according to the World Bank and the Center for Economic Research. The degree of urbanization and development of agglomerations was assessed using a comparative analysis. Institutional theory approaches were used to study typical patterns and distinctive features of urbanization dynamics in Central Asia. While maintaining the current trends of demographic growth, migration, administrative-territorial and economic transformations in the Central Asian countries, population growth in rural and urban areas (primarily in small and medium-sized ones) will continue. At the same time, an increase in the concentration of population, production and cultural life of cities is expected. The continued influx of people into cities will lead to the territorial expansion of cities and the emergence of natural agglomerations.