Factors of Interstate Influence in Contemporary Competitive Conditions: Russia — Turkey — Kazakhstan

Introduction. In the context of increasing turbulence in the international system, competition among states is acquiring a multidimensional character, encompassing political, economic, sociocultural, and humanitarian domains with the aim of expanding multilateral external influence. Within this framework, the relations of Russia and Turkey with Kazakhstan reflect the emergence of a competitive-cooperative model, in which states employ diverse instruments to consolidate their positions in both regional and global contexts. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan adopted a multi-vector foreign policy, enabling it to engage with a wide range of partners, including Russia and Turkey. However, each of these states relies on distinct mechanisms of influence in Central Asia in general, and in Kazakhstan in particular. The aim of this study is to identify the key factors of interstate influence under contemporary competitive conditions, drawing on the case of the current interactions between Russia and Turkey with Kazakhstan.
Materials and Methods. The study employs general scientific methods, including the analysis and systematization of scholarly and regulatory-legal sources, as well as factual and statistical data and public sociopolitical narratives circulating in the media space. A method of comparative comprehensive analysis is applied to examine the strategies of Russia and Turkey with regard to their influence on Kazakhstan’s development. The research also utilizes discourse analysis, which makes it possible to consider, in a broader context, how Russia and Turkey construct their narratives in Kazakhstan and how information about one of the key Central Asian actors is communicated in the public sphere. An institutional approach is used to identify the role of international organizations and bilateral agreements in the implementation of the two states' «soft power.» Finally, the method of generalization of the obtained results allows for the identification of key factors of interstate influence under contemporary competitive conditions.
Results. The study identifies distinctive features and spheres of influence of Russia and Turkey in Kazakhstan during the post-Soviet period. Russia maintains its influence through the promotion of the Russian language, which holds official status in Kazakhstan; shared cultural ties rooted in the Soviet past; the widespread presence of Russian-language media; as well as investments and the implementation of large-scale infrastructure projects. Turkey, in contrast, prioritizes the development of joint universities and the establishment of cultural centers, along with youth-oriented initiatives, while only gradually extending its influence into the economic and investment domains. The findings also indicate a pattern of competitive engagement by both Russia and Turkey in Kazakhstan’s military sphere. The synthesis of the data allows for the systematization of key factors of interstate influence under contemporary competitive conditions, including demographic, institutional, cultural-linguistic, informational, investment-economic, infrastructural, educational, and socio-humanitarian, as well as military-political and military-technological factors.
Conclusion. Kazakhstan is positioned at the center of competition between two powers, which directly affects its foreign policy and regional stability. Russia and Turkey employ different influence strategies: Russia relies on a shared Soviet legacy with Kazakhstan, whereas Turkey draws on Turkic identity and religious affinity. The interactions of Russia and Turkey with Kazakhstan demonstrate the effectiveness of both a comprehensive (multivector) and a multilateral approach to addressing the issue of interstate influence in contemporary competitive environments.