The Crisis of Regional Leadership in Latin America: Between Internal Fragmentation and External Pressure

Introduction. This research provides a comprehensive analysis of the structural transformation of the regional leadership system in Latin America, in the context of increased global geopolitical instability. The purpose of the study is to identify the causes and manifestations of the crisis of regional leadership in Latin America, which was caused by the transformation of the role of key regional players such as Brazil and Argentina. The study examines internal factors such as fragmentation and disunity, external challenges, and possible ways to overcome the current situation.
Materials and methods. The methodological framework includes a systematic and institutional approach, which allows us to assess the resource potential of candidate states for regional leadership and identify the reasons for their ability or inability to consolidate the region. The empirical basis of the study includes legal acts that regulate the activities of states within the framework of regional integration associations and organizations.
Results. The study identifies how internal political crises and economic stagnation in the «middle powers» have led to the erosion of regional integration mechanisms such as UNASUR and MERCOSUR, creating a «power vacuum» in the region and paving the way for a transition from potential monocentrism to an unstable polycentric model. It is argued that the absence of a dominant regional power contributes to the fragmentation of Latin America, turning it into a field for intense competition among non-regional actors. The authors pay special attention to the «double dependency» dilemma faced by Latin American countries, which must balance between the ongoing military and political pressure from the United States and the rapid growth of China's economic presence.
Discussion. The study theorizes the transition of the regional system from potential monocentrism to an unstable polycentric model. The authors predict that, in the short term, the struggle for leadership will shift away from ideological confrontation and towards a pragmatic pursuit of external investment, which will eventually lead to the consolidation of the regional security architecture and the reduction of Latin America's overall international influence. The future of regional leadership in Latin America depends in large part on the political will of the current generation of leaders to overcome their differences for the common good, and on the ability of institutions to translate that will into concrete action. In the context of the emerging new world order, this is a necessary condition for the region to take its rightful place in the new global architecture, rather than remaining an arena for foreign competition.
Conclusion. The publication is of interest to experts and young scientists, as well as to anyone interested in contemporary global and regional studies. The study's findings provide recommendations for improving the effectiveness of existing integration models for regional and transregional cooperation between states, in which Russia actively participates.